Cattle Market Q & A

Cattle markets are always an important topic but between recent political events and some hot fall sales they are creating more conversation than usual in and outside of the industry. Volatility is especially a primary concern for many cow-calf producers that has created extra stress and head scratching about what to do with their 2025 calf crop.

“Volatile times are not a time to change your marketing plan. Stick with what you usually do,” says Tim Petry, Livestock Economist at North Dakota State University.

As ranchers, it can be hard to watch markets fluctuate and wonder if you’ll get the price you want next week, next month or even 60 days from now.

Petry says, “Don't get worried about the futures market being up the limit today or down the limit tomorrow. Concentrate on the cash market and the fundamentals.”

The fundamentals being the first things you learn in any economics or business course – supply and demand.

“There are two things that affect prices and that’s supply and demand. We are short on supply because of six straight years of a declining cow herd, and beef demand has been very, very strong,” explains Petry.

The fundamentals of supply and demand combined with tax challenges that come from selling two calf crops in one year and resource management are the primary reasons Petry encourages ranchers to not panic sell.

He says, “Most producers are locked into selling at a certain time because of their resources. Stick with that plan and do the best you can.”

Additionally, he encourages producers to look at other methods to increase profits and capitalize on good years.

“The old days of hauling calves to the sale barn, dropping them off, and forgetting about them are over,” says Petry. “If you want to be on top of the market, provide more information. We’re in the information age now, and buyers want to know everything they can.”

Backgrounding also matters to buyers.

“January is our biggest marketing month because calves are weaned and bunk-trained, and that alone adds value,” explains Petry.

Outside of how long will bull markets last, herd rebuilding is the next big cattle market topic.

Petry says, “We’re in the early stages of modest herd rebuilding. Moisture will determine how fast that happens,” says Petry. “Moisture conditions throughout cattle country bode well for bred heifer prices.”

Heifer marketing opportunities are also something to consider as a cow-calf producer.

Petry says, “There’s flexibility in heifers. Many are backgrounded through winter, and in spring the decision gets made—breed them or send them to the feedlot.”

Like the rest of us, Petry doesn’t have a crystal ball to predict exactly when markets will shift. However, he does offer his prediction to cow-calf producers.

“We think prices will stabilize. They aren’t going to go up as much as they did last year, but we expect another very good year,” says Petry. “Beef demand has been very, very strong—stronger than many expected given the economy.”

You can listen to the full conversation on the Casual Cattle Conversations podcast.